Advantage Pegula or Svitolina in the Dubai final? We make the case for both

After her momentous comeback win over Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula was asked if a title at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships would be the perfect birthday present.

“Yes,” Pegula said in her on-court interview. “That would be an amazing birthday present. I’m not going to mention how old I’m turning, but it’s getting too old to where I don’t want to talk about it.”

A testament to her longevity and consistency, Pegula is the third oldest finalist in a quarter century of play in Dubai. Next Tuesday, she will celebrate her (gasp!) 32^nd birthday. The funny thing? Pegula’s playing the best tennis of her life. 

Ditto for Elina Svitolina, who overcame Coco Gauff in a three-set thriller. On Saturday, the two 31-year-olds will meet in the final. It will be the second-oldest combined age (63 years, 148 days) of two players in a Tier I/WTA 1000 final since 1990.

Svitolina is looking for her third title in Dubai -- and the first in eight years. Action in the second 1000 final of the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz season begins at 7 p.m. local time, (3 p.m. GMT, 10 a.m. ET).

Pegula has won five of her eight matches against Svitolina, but the last one -- at Indian Wells last year -- went to the Ukrainian in three sets. This is their first collision in a final.

Writers Brad Kallet and Greg Garber make the case for these deserving finalists:

Advantage, Pegula

Greg Garber: There have been flurries by 30-something players in recent years, but none of them have been as consistent as Pegula. She’s finished as a year-end Top 10 player for four consecutive seasons with legitimate designs on a fifth.

Pegula has been called solid, steady and dependable. True, she isn’t blessed with the power tools of some of her peers, but those adjectives fall short of describing her ability to win matches.

She got throttled by Anisimova in the opening set, but made some tweaks in her game, started serving better and managed to emerge with a 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory. There was a single break point in the deciding set, and Pegula won it when Anisimova’s forehand missed by less than a millimeter.

WTA 1000s are Pegula’s favorite hunting ground, and she’ll be stoked for this one, Brad. Among American women, only Serena Williams has made more 1000 finals than Pegula’s eight in the 17 years of the format’s existence. Among active players, only Victoria Azarenka, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have reached more 1000 finals.

The win over Anisimova was already her third over a Top 10 player this young season.

“Elina, coming up on a year now since I played her,” Pegula told reporters. “We always have really tough matches. We play kind of similar styles. I think a little bit of counterpunching, but we can play aggressive. We're very solid, I think, off both wings. 

“I feel like with her, it's always a mix of trying to be aggressive, but not overplaying because she also moves pretty well and has some good defense.”

Pegula’s secret power is turning consistent defense instantly into offense. It’s something she’s worked hard to hone. Few players are as tactically astute as Pegula. In my mind, her ability to problem solve makes her the favorite in this spot.

Pegula has the advantage of having played the first semifinal, especially because the second went 3 hours and 3 minutes, concluding well past 11 p.m. local time.

The win over Anisimova lifted Pegula’s record in three-set matches to 4-0. If this one goes the distance, I like her chances. 

Advantage, Svitolina

Brad Kallet: Experience on tour brings something that can’t be taught: the ability to steady yourself and win when momentum slips.

That’s exactly what we saw against Coco Gauff on Friday. In the longest tiebreak of the year, Elina Svitolina was up a set and within a point of closing it out, but four match points slipped away as she dropped the breaker 15-13 and gave the American new life. To reset after that and still take the third set 6-4 was a clear snapshot of the grit and composure that have defined her best runs.

Pegula does come into this final with plenty of momentum, Greg, after coming back to beat Anisimova. But I'd argue Svitolina, on the heels of finding a way against Gauff, has even more. 

She'll be exhausted -- this was the World No. 9's third straight three-set win -- but throughout her career, even on tired legs, she's been able to find a way, and win the critical points and critical games when she needs them. The proof is in the form of 19 career WTA titles, including two at this very tournament. She loves playing at the Aviation Club Tennis Centre, and don't think that those fond memories don't come in handy when she needs an extra boost, as she did on Friday. 

It's also worth mentioning that Svitolina, who had an excellent Australian swing, is now 15-2 on the season, with wins against Mirra Andreeva, Gauff (twice), Iva Jovic and Belinda Bencic. She also has a title under her belt already this season, winning her first event in Auckland, and re-entered the Top 10, a meaningful goal of hers. She'll be taking quite a bit of confidence into this final.

And as you mentioned above, Greg, she has the memory of a come-from-behind win over Pegula at Indian Wells in her back pocket.

It should be tight and could well stretch to a third set, but I’m leaning toward Svitolina to close it out and claim her 20th career title, a milestone that would cap a strong opening two months of the season.